• Mary Berner says Cumulus is turning around.
• She’s on a victory lap based on financials and ratings.
• Investors are now questioning their ratings performance.
• Leaked documents about their top ten markets.
• Blunders, missed opportunities, flat out incompetence documented.
• And in the one market where Cumulus hit it out of the park, they did the unthinkable to ruin it all making investors nervous.
• Is it finally Mike McVay’s fault?
• What’s the plan -- investors are now “woke” for answers.

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Among brokers, the word is that almost every radio station is for sale.

That’s an over exaggeration, but it points to the desperate situation facing owners of radio stations.

The question is:  with few buyers and an industry that has been trending downward in revenue, what happens if owners who have to sell can’t find a buyer?

• Panicked sellers can’t find buyers – here’s their 3 other options.
• Why so many station owners want out so badly.
• Prices are going down and still no buyers – what’s up with that?
• No sale, no problem – look at the radio station of the future if owners have to keep them.
• The one way sellers can find a buyer this minute – today – without lowering their prices – so why are they refusing.

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Analysts may be starting to see things my way as it relates to Entercom.

Their stock price has been sinking from a $16 high before the CBS Radio acquisition to within a quarter from being a $4 stock as of close yesterday.

And that means institutional buyers may either be forbidden from investing in “ETM” by their own rules or because they have increasing concern.

Either way the CBS merger is appearing to be the bust we called it from outset and evidence of incompetence are everywhere around the company’s attempt to clean up their mess.

• Even Wall Street is starting to turn on Entercom – their reasons, concerns, eye-popping quotes.
• What one thing that almost nobody in radio can name is worrying the financial community the most about Entercom.
• Previously untold details of how Entercom staves off the dumping of their stock – and it’s all legal if not deceiving.
• Surprising doubts percolating from fans of David Field concerning Entercom’s growth plan.
• Real concerns about the all-news stations Entercom bought from CBS Radio – identified and analyzed.

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Jerry will appear with Lew & John Dickey together on stage at the 2019 Conclave in Minneapolis June 20^thin a deadly honest conversation about Cumulus and the future of the radio focusing on growth opportunities for radio people in the new modern media.  Details here.

Proud Mary is back to playing her A game.

Claiming that she has turned Cumulus around but the assertion appears to have no relationship to the facts according to people familiar with the internal workings of Cumulus.

The truth is – Cumulus is not a turnaround, it is a very troubled company.

Just because Mary Berner says it is so does not make it so and that is backed up by facts.

The happy talk radio trade press fell for Cumulus proclaiming a “victory lap” although the facts suggest a weakened company that is misleading the public as to the seriousness of their situation.  

Here are the facts from financial people close to Cumulus based on their recently filed 10-K.

• How financial experts close to Cumulus debunk dubious company claims of a financial turnaround.
• Cumulus says revenue is up – here are the real results with specific figures.
• What is the truth about Cumulus’ cash flow based on correct numbers.
• How bad is their debt – a critical indicator of future performance is revealed.
• What to watch to predict more station and asset sales like the ones to EMF for quick cash and low return.

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Compare monthly vs. annual subscriptions here

Report news in confidence here.

Jerry will appear with Lew & John Dickey together on stage at the 2019 Conclave in Minneapolis June 20^thin a deadly honest conversation about Cumulus and the future of the radio focusing on growth opportunities for radio people in the new modern media.  Details here.

There’s EMF and then who?

EMF’s vast religious broadcasting empire is buying up great radio properties these days for low, low prices because so many stations are for sale.

Brokers list 7 radio groups as potential solid buyers even as radio revenue declines.

The current multiple times cash flow that will be used to price the stations is different.

And it’s interesting that timing is everything but especially in buying or selling a radio station – that “sweet spot” has recently changed, too.

• There are 7 buyers for radio who are hot to own more stations (not counting Lew Dickey) – here are their chances to expand.
• The radio group that will pick around the edges and the one loaded with cash that’s under the radar.
• Why the majority of sellers can’t take even a good offer these days.
• The up-to-the-minute going multiples for radio acquisitions according to financial experts – broken down into small, medium and major markets.
• The $103.5 million Cumulus/EMF giveaway – is that the new normal?

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Only Lori Lewis could make this happen -- Lew & John Dickey and I will be together on stage at the 2019 Conclave in Minneapolis June 20^thin a wide ranging and deadly honest conversation about what happened at Cumulus and where the future of the radio industry is – obviously, it’s not working for companies that can’t fire people fast enough.  We will talk about growth opportunities for radio people in the new modern media.  Details here.

I thought Cumulus was between a rock and a hard place.

The “victory lap” and turnaround that they are selling this week is far from that.  In fact, Cumulus is still in a precarious position unless it gets to choose its own facts.

That they were forced to sell iconic WPLJ-FM, New York and other major market properties to EMF for a lot less than they were worth is not the win-win they are trying to sell the public. 

Who calls selling major market stations a win-win when you essentially vacate a market?

After all, they must have needed the money to remain as a going concern.

Cumulus sold those valuable assets for virtually nothing not to keep operating or investing in future businesses as they tried to spin it to the public.

You could almost forgive and understand that.

Mary could now use the proceeds to fund her wall – I mean, her podcasting business.

But it’s worse.

Is Mary Berner even still calling the shots?

Remember this name – Paul Stone. 

Where is the $103.5 million EMF check really going?

Are more Cumulus stations being readied for sale?

Read the full article now

• There is an offer on the table right now involving Westwood One – here are the details.
• Westwood parent Cumulus reportedly wants to sell -- what they want in return.
• Why one prospective buyer is now going over Mary Berner’s head to get the deal done.
• How many other Westwood One buyers are making their move.
• How Westwood has started to consolidate operations detailed – first word on offices to be closed.

Read the full article 

Compare monthly vs annual subscriptions here

Report news in confidence here.

Lew & John Dickey and I will be together on stage at the 2019 Conclave in Minneapolis June 20^thin a wide ranging and deadly honest conversation about what happened at Cumulus and where the future of the radio industry is – obviously, it’s not working for companies that can’t fire people fast enough.  We will talk about growth opportunities for radio people in the new modern media.  Details here.

Not one of my current NYU students knows what WPLJ is.

It is true that they come from a generation that has never been without Napster, music piracy, iTunes, iPods and, of course, streaming.

So, they have no horse in the race that an iconic and technically superior radio signal is being sold off to Educational Media Foundation (EMF) to turn into a religious station.

I still can’t believe Mary Berner went there.

Selling WPLJ, all but eviscerating DC, trading stations with Entercom to cut costs.

Sure doesn’t sound like someone who wants to remain in the radio business.

And now, it appears the Cumulus auction is not finished and other markets may soon become available for purchase.

• Which 2 markets are thought to be next?
• Is EMF in the equation or are there other value buyers stepping forward?
• What is the time frame for the next round of Cumulus station sales?
• Why one of these markets will be a tough call because it is a cash cow that helps revenue but can get them a big payday – weighing the factors.
• Are they done selling super signals like WPLJ – in other words, was PLJ a one-off?

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Since Cumulus, owner of syndicator/network Westwood One went into bankruptcy rumors have surfaced that Westwood One is for sale.

It appears any attempt to sell Westwood One fell short of a decent offer so the company plunders on with an asset some believe they would rather monetize for their lenders by selling.

And yet it appears something major is up with Westwood One.

If not a sale – say to Entercom which would just about kill their stock price if they even tried – then what? 

• The most likely solution that would leave affiliate stations in a quandary. 

• A sale – not to the likely buyer Entercom, but to this company that is not on anyone’s radar.

• Why keeping Westwood One is becoming untenable for Cumulus.

• Where podcasting fits into the Cumulus Westwood One strategy. 

• Why a frontal attack by this interested party could terminally drive what’s left of Westwood One’s value down. 

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Now we know why David Field is letting analysts carry Entercom’s water on adjusted EBITDA and “assumed” synergies.

The real adjusted numbers belie reality which suggests that Entercom has already begun what could be a long spiral down.

Digging in to the reported numbers, actual performance of Entercom/CBS Radio is headed the wrong way and it suggests that lots of changes are coming or else this merger experiment is as good as over.

The market has been suspicious of the merger from almost day one as the reasons are becoming more apparent.

• How the massive Entercom salary and expense cutbacks are factoring in to overall revenue using real numbers they reported.
• Projection of real revenue for 2019 compared to the past few years.
• How analysts fears about Entercom have come true.
• The most pressing problem that Entercom must address quickly.
• Will current levels of station operating expenses be retained or will there be reductions?

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Mary Berner is just like the other radio CEOs when it comes to putting lipstick on a pig.

She just does it with more enthusiasm.

The happy talk radio trade press picks up on this combination of carefully selected information and brute optimism without challenge to give Cumulus a pass.

These free passes are based on no specifics, details or quantifiable metrics that a sophisticated public media investor would ever wrap their arms around.

Things are worse there than Berner is letting on.

Revenue problems, EBITDA problems, digital future problems and the evidence is all there for those who know where to look deeper into their Q4 pre-release and investor deck filed in the 8-K.

It turns out to be a lot of half-truths and taking liberty with the numbers.

Here are the real Cumulus numbers unpacked.

• The real Cumulus revenue figure and how they compare to the adjusted ones Mary Berner is selling.
• What’s being thrown in to prop Cumulus performance up.
• It’s right there in the numbers – the specific group of employees who will be taking the brunt of coming expense cuts.
• What’s the impact of Berner’s podcasting initiative?
• The expected effects of the sale of WPLJ and watering down major markets on revenue.

Read the full article now.

Have you noticed recently that David Field has muzzled his criticism of CBS Radio and its employees who he acquired through the merger?

Where he seemingly and publicly blamed them for almost everything that went wrong on the assimilation of the two companies, he has now fallen silent.

It’s not an accident.

Entercom is in big trouble missing investors’ expectations, failing to perform up to company estimations and all of this as radio continues to battle declining ad revenue and searching for a solution to the digital puzzle.

It’s not your father’s Entercom anymore.

Or maybe it is – more like founder Joe Field’s company than the grandiose dream of his son, David.

In any case, Field has decided to shake it up and the Entercom that we will see is nothing like the bumbling company that screwed the CBS merger.

• Will Field give up more control and rely on others to help turn around Entercom?
• Where’s Weezie – does she keep doing “Where’s Waldo” or does she reemerge and if so, how does she help the reboot?
• The all-news franchise is in trouble and it was one-third of CBS’s revenue, who comes in to straighten that out?
• The SAG-AFTRA pissing match – the new David Field.
• What new initiatives are coming to pick up lagging revenue?
• The list of what gets rebooted – and what does not.

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We know that Cox Media Group is selling off its TV division to the private equity firm Apollo Global Management. 

This includes 13 Cox television stations, a radio cluster in Dayton along with some publishing assets.

No so fast with the rumor that private equity firm Apollo will also roll up the remaining radio stations which are an integral part of TV and publishing.

There are other interested buyers. 

We also know Cox will not solely retain the radio assets so they are on the move, but because Cox is a well-run media company albeit in a declining media industry, there are some breathtaking possibilities beyond the obvious.

• Some really good buyers don’t have a chance in hell, here are a few of them.
• Cox is keeping a minority interest so they want a deal their way so the question is what is their way?
• Why Cox Radio is in such demand when Cumulus is out selling off icons like WPLJ and essentially vacating New York and DC among other places they need to be.
• What it will all come down to – and what’s fascinating is that price has very little to do with it. Here’s what it will take to win the 61 Cox Radio stations.

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A few years ago we predicted the Cumulus and iHeart bankruptcies.

Few believed it then.  Pure speculation, they said.  Can’t be. And the companies denied it up and down until the bitter end.

Now we’re back with 4 more radio bankruptcies and the reasons why.

Obviously when these 4 radio groups file, it will have an adverse effect on the struggling radio industry.

• Who are these 4 groups?
• Why will they be forced to seek bankruptcy protection?
• Which one has the best chance of maybe – just maybe, dodging it – but even then, no guarantees.
• We’re warning you now, some of the names on this list are shockers.
• The latest intel on each of the 4 companies and why they are headed down.

Read the full article now