Music Media Predictions for 2009

The Big Trend: Social Networking

Not just Facebook and MySpace. The concept of building a social network around almost anything and having passionate people come together.

2008 may go down as the year of Twitter -- the 140 character communication system that asks what you're doing -- short and sweet. If you haven't tried Twitter, do it now and experiment with it -- (follow me, too).

We'll be talking a lot about the importance of understanding social networking in the year ahead, but for now let me caution you not to fall into the traditional media misconception that social&hellip

Music Media Predictions for 2009

The Big Trend: Social Networking

Not just Facebook and MySpace. The concept of building a social network around almost anything and having passionate people come together.

2008 may go down as the year of Twitter -- the 140 character communication system that asks what you're doing -- short and sweet. If you haven't tried Twitter, do it now and experiment with it -- (follow me, too).

We'll be talking a lot about the importance of understanding social networking in the year ahead, but for now let me caution you not to fall into the traditional media misconception that social&hellip

Rate the Radio CEO

Apple CEO Steve Jobs was voted as one of the nicest bosses in American business by his employees according to a Glassdoor.com survey.

Jobs, in spite of his quirkiness and tough facade was given a 90% approval ratings by Apple employees. In fact, six of the top ten nicest CEOs headed Silicon Valley companies.

Keep in mind that these six companies are experiencing the same economic downturn as everyone else but somehow they manage to win the admiration of their workers in terms of how they lead their company through tough times. I mention this because the radio "get out of jail" card is always the economy.

Even some&hellip

Rate the Radio CEO

Apple CEO Steve Jobs was voted as one of the nicest bosses in American business by his employees according to a Glassdoor.com survey.

Jobs, in spite of his quirkiness and tough facade was given a 90% approval ratings by Apple employees. In fact, six of the top ten nicest CEOs headed Silicon Valley companies.

Keep in mind that these six companies are experiencing the same economic downturn as everyone else but somehow they manage to win the admiration of their workers in terms of how they lead their company through tough times. I mention this because the radio "get out of jail" card is always the economy.

Even some&hellip

Revaluing Radio

Right from the start of radio consolidation, the smart money said these emerging monopolies could never pay back the huge debt they were running up to buy large concentrations of radio stations.

Back then, $100 million sale prices for individual radio properties were not uncommon. Multiples way in excess of ten times were expected. There was so much funny money around that individuals who wanted extra fees were paid millions just for "introducing" seller to buyer.

It was as phony an excuse for paying fees as investment banks, buyers and sellers could come up with.

Did anyone really believe that the debt being&hellip

Revaluing Radio

Right from the start of radio consolidation, the smart money said these emerging monopolies could never pay back the huge debt they were running up to buy large concentrations of radio stations.

Back then, $100 million sale prices for individual radio properties were not uncommon. Multiples way in excess of ten times were expected. There was so much funny money around that individuals who wanted extra fees were paid millions just for "introducing" seller to buyer.

It was as phony an excuse for paying fees as investment banks, buyers and sellers could come up with.

Did anyone really believe that the debt being&hellip

Happy Holidays, Fagreed!

Local radio revenue was off 21% in November.

National down 24%.

And that's with political advertising from a presidential election campaign.

It was the worst month for radio since these tallies were first kept over 20 years ago. And January business is as cold as a New England winter.

Of course, radio executives blame the recession not themselves. The slumping economy is part of the problem, but radio's decline has been in progress longer than the economic downturn.

Unfortunately, the radio industry is not likely to return to break even numbers for years -- if ever -- according to analysts. And the&hellip

Happy Holidays, Fagreed!

Local radio revenue was off 21% in November.

National down 24%.

And that's with political advertising from a presidential election campaign.

It was the worst month for radio since these tallies were first kept over 20 years ago. And January business is as cold as a New England winter.

Of course, radio executives blame the recession not themselves. The slumping economy is part of the problem, but radio's decline has been in progress longer than the economic downturn.

Unfortunately, the radio industry is not likely to return to break even numbers for years -- if ever -- according to analysts. And the&hellip

The RIAA Lawsuit Retreat

The Recording Industry Association of America has declared victory and is withdrawing its troops from courtrooms all over the country.

The RIAA has finally concluded what any young person could have told them ten years ago -- that you can't invade an entire generation's Internet and expect them to pay record store prices for music.

I always knew the RIAA effort to sue its way onto the Internet with a brick and mortar strategy wouldn't work. Many of you knew it, too.

When I became a professor of music industry at the University of Southern California something very telling happened that I don't believe I ever shared&hellip

The RIAA Lawsuit Retreat

The Recording Industry Association of America has declared victory and is withdrawing its troops from courtrooms all over the country.

The RIAA has finally concluded what any young person could have told them ten years ago -- that you can't invade an entire generation's Internet and expect them to pay record store prices for music.

I always knew the RIAA effort to sue its way onto the Internet with a brick and mortar strategy wouldn't work. Many of you knew it, too.

When I became a professor of music industry at the University of Southern California something very telling happened that I don't believe I ever shared&hellip

Good News For Radio & Records

We know the bad news.

Now, how about some good news about the radio industry.

1. Satellite Radio Isn't Hurting Radio

Remember when Saga CEO Ed Christian would throw a snit over satellite radio content as it related to terrestrial stations. Are you aware of the NAB spending millions of dollars on fighting satellite radio?

Well, they wasted their time and money.

Satellite radio was never the enemy and it is even less potent a threat as 2008 winds down.

Have you listened to the new Sirius XM lately?

Since the XM people (known for longer playlists) merged with the Sirius programming (more hit&hellip

Good News For Radio & Records

We know the bad news.

Now, how about some good news about the radio industry.

1. Satellite Radio Isn't Hurting Radio

Remember when Saga CEO Ed Christian would throw a snit over satellite radio content as it related to terrestrial stations. Are you aware of the NAB spending millions of dollars on fighting satellite radio?

Well, they wasted their time and money.

Satellite radio was never the enemy and it is even less potent a threat as 2008 winds down.

Have you listened to the new Sirius XM lately?

Since the XM people (known for longer playlists) merged with the Sirius programming (more hit&hellip

Radio To Die For

In spite of all the bad news we hear in both the music and media businesses these days, there are also a lot of new opportunities rising from these challenges.

Instead of letting potentially good ideas die, let's allow the entrepreneurs who read this space every day to have at some of them.

What you are about to read are true stories. The names have not been changed to protect the guilty.

Trend: Newspapers cut back print editions

The Detroit Media Partnership which publishes the city's two newspapers (Free Press and Detroit News) have&hellip

Radio To Die For

In spite of all the bad news we hear in both the music and media businesses these days, there are also a lot of new opportunities rising from these challenges.

Instead of letting potentially good ideas die, let's allow the entrepreneurs who read this space every day to have at some of them.

What you are about to read are true stories. The names have not been changed to protect the guilty.

Trend: Newspapers cut back print editions

The Detroit Media Partnership which publishes the city's two newspapers (Free Press and Detroit News) have&hellip

Radio on Hospice

If you go by my mail, a lot of readers are scratching their heads about Emmis CEO Jeff Smulyan's decision to give 41-year old Chief Financial Officer Patrick Walsh the additional responsibility of running U.S. radio operations.

The radio industry sure has a lot of financial wizards running things.

It's clear that the radio industry still doesn't get it.

The problem with radio is not money.

It's worse.

It's a lack of compelling and addictive content. Failure to create content for the mobile world and a terrible misunderstanding of what the Internet can mean in terms of future revenue. Plus a total&hellip

Radio on Hospice

If you go by my mail, a lot of readers are scratching their heads about Emmis CEO Jeff Smulyan's decision to give 41-year old Chief Financial Officer Patrick Walsh the additional responsibility of running U.S. radio operations.

The radio industry sure has a lot of financial wizards running things.

It's clear that the radio industry still doesn't get it.

The problem with radio is not money.

It's worse.

It's a lack of compelling and addictive content. Failure to create content for the mobile world and a terrible misunderstanding of what the Internet can mean in terms of future revenue. Plus a total&hellip

The Clear Channel-CBS Swap

Their employees may have received assorted pink slips on the run up to the holiday season, but Christmas came early to Clear Channel and CBS who announced a swap of stations yesterday.

CBS gets two FMs that the Department of Justice is forcing Clear Channel to sell (Spanish KLOL and AC KHMX in Houston).

Clear Channel gets KBKS, Seattle, WQSR, Baltimore, KXJM/KLTH, Portland, OR and KQJK, Sacramento.

The deal must be approved by the FCC and DOJ -- no problem there and no cash changed hands.

I repeat, no cash was involved so the tax benefits were there for both groups.

This is about the best you're going to&hellip

The Clear Channel-CBS Swap

Their employees may have received assorted pink slips on the run up to the holiday season, but Christmas came early to Clear Channel and CBS who announced a swap of stations yesterday.

CBS gets two FMs that the Department of Justice is forcing Clear Channel to sell (Spanish KLOL and AC KHMX in Houston).

Clear Channel gets KBKS, Seattle, WQSR, Baltimore, KXJM/KLTH, Portland, OR and KQJK, Sacramento.

The deal must be approved by the FCC and DOJ -- no problem there and no cash changed hands.

I repeat, no cash was involved so the tax benefits were there for both groups.

This is about the best you're going to&hellip

The Shrink Wrapping of Radio

Less Is More is getting ready for the next phase.

Any day now -- and certainly within weeks -- don't be surprised to see your number one radio group, Clear Channel, give radio a glimpse of the consolidated future.

Again.

Clear Channel has led the way -- or should I say, bullied its way into recreating radio in its own image that harkens back to the old moniker "Cheap Channel" back in the Mays days.

I don't know about you, but way back when consolidation was getting started I was somewhat surprised to see Lowry Mays and his Texas Sue-Boys wind up as the industry's top consolidator. Not that it matters now, but&hellip

The Shrink Wrapping of Radio

Less Is More is getting ready for the next phase.

Any day now -- and certainly within weeks -- don't be surprised to see your number one radio group, Clear Channel, give radio a glimpse of the consolidated future.

Again.

Clear Channel has led the way -- or should I say, bullied its way into recreating radio in its own image that harkens back to the old moniker "Cheap Channel" back in the Mays days.

I don't know about you, but way back when consolidation was getting started I was somewhat surprised to see Lowry Mays and his Texas Sue-Boys wind up as the industry's top consolidator. Not that it matters now, but&hellip

A Radio Station That Signs Jocks To Contracts

Okay, I can't take it any more.

Another one of my favorites (and his audience's) John Lander is cleaned out of Boston by CBS because of economic constraints. I hope CBS is planning to sell its entire operation soon because it's pretty well gutted now.

I'm in sore need of some good, upbeat news right now. So many firings. So much talent on the street. It's hard to take.

Believe me, I know my limitations. I can't make Sam Zell continue to make severance payments to his discharged workers when he no longer has to under Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Randy and the Rainbows could be in trouble -- the Rainbows being the Jacor&hellip

A Radio Station That Signs Jocks To Contracts

Okay, I can't take it any more.

Another one of my favorites (and his audience's) John Lander is cleaned out of Boston by CBS because of economic constraints. I hope CBS is planning to sell its entire operation soon because it's pretty well gutted now.

I'm in sore need of some good, upbeat news right now. So many firings. So much talent on the street. It's hard to take.

Believe me, I know my limitations. I can't make Sam Zell continue to make severance payments to his discharged workers when he no longer has to under Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Randy and the Rainbows could be in trouble -- the Rainbows being the Jacor&hellip

DRM Free Is Not Free Enough

Rumor has it that Apple is on the verge of removing the digital rights protection from its iTunes Music Store products.

That will be a remarkable achievement should it happen -- even for Steve Jobs who more than a year ago tried to publicly bully the labels into letting him sell their songs without digital rights management.

You may remember that Jobs went public with a letter that the time had come to loosen up the reins on music protection. The labels responded by saying, you loosen up on Fairplay first. Fairplay is Apple's proprietary rights management system.

You may or may not be surprised to know that at least&hellip

DRM Free Is Not Free Enough

Rumor has it that Apple is on the verge of removing the digital rights protection from its iTunes Music Store products.

That will be a remarkable achievement should it happen -- even for Steve Jobs who more than a year ago tried to publicly bully the labels into letting him sell their songs without digital rights management.

You may remember that Jobs went public with a letter that the time had come to loosen up the reins on music protection. The labels responded by saying, you loosen up on Fairplay first. Fairplay is Apple's proprietary rights management system.

You may or may not be surprised to know that at least&hellip

Radio: No Balls and Jockless

The personnel cutbacks in radio continue.

Forget that it's only a few weeks before Christmas.

Each week another group gets to make a fool out of itself to shave more costs while rationalizing that they are doing better radio.

Someone must believe them -- but not my readers from the next generation who know better and -- believe it or not -- the programmers and managers who know how to run a good radio station. Or what I call the unemployed.

This week, it's CBS Radio on a rampage.

Their latest desperate move is to eliminate djs entirely and do an imitation of the "Jack" format -- you know, the "we play&hellip

Radio: No Balls and Jockless

The personnel cutbacks in radio continue.

Forget that it's only a few weeks before Christmas.

Each week another group gets to make a fool out of itself to shave more costs while rationalizing that they are doing better radio.

Someone must believe them -- but not my readers from the next generation who know better and -- believe it or not -- the programmers and managers who know how to run a good radio station. Or what I call the unemployed.

This week, it's CBS Radio on a rampage.

Their latest desperate move is to eliminate djs entirely and do an imitation of the "Jack" format -- you know, the "we play&hellip

The Grammy Truth Hurts Radio

The radio industry is up in arms about what it considers a snub that happened on the recent Grammy broadcast on CBS.

In case you missed it, here's what was said (courtesy of RAIN) ...

In CBS

The Grammy Truth Hurts Radio

The radio industry is up in arms about what it considers a snub that happened on the recent Grammy broadcast on CBS.

In case you missed it, here's what was said (courtesy of RAIN) ...

In CBS

Hard Times At (Sell Tribune) High

Sam Zell already rued the day he purchased Tribune Company and nothing that has happened to him since has caused him to change his mind.

The first thing he did was hire his closest link to the media business -- Randy Michaels (former Jacor and Clear Channel head). Michaels then raided his former employer for a bevy of talent who may also be rueing the day that they signed on.

Now we learn that Tribune Company is headed for bankruptcy.

That's eight major dailies including the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and Baltimore Sun and a group of local TV stations. (Things are not much better for television stations&hellip

Hard Times At (Sell Tribune) High

Sam Zell already rued the day he purchased Tribune Company and nothing that has happened to him since has caused him to change his mind.

The first thing he did was hire his closest link to the media business -- Randy Michaels (former Jacor and Clear Channel head). Michaels then raided his former employer for a bevy of talent who may also be rueing the day that they signed on.

Now we learn that Tribune Company is headed for bankruptcy.

That's eight major dailies including the Los Angeles Times, Chicago Tribune and Baltimore Sun and a group of local TV stations. (Things are not much better for television stations&hellip

The Wal-Martization of Radio

How's this for radio's recession strategy?

Cut spot costs and make long-term deals.

Turn radio into the Wal-Mart of the media industry. Always open. Always the low price.

That's some of the advice that consultant Jack Myers wrote recently in an interesting piece called Seven Strategies for Rebuilding the Radio Industry.

Myers is calling on the two largest consolidators, CBS and Clear Channel, to immediately announce dramatic cost reductions for 30-second commercials while maintaining prices for 60. Start with the pitch that&hellip

The Wal-Martization of Radio

How's this for radio's recession strategy?

Cut spot costs and make long-term deals.

Turn radio into the Wal-Mart of the media industry. Always open. Always the low price.

That's some of the advice that consultant Jack Myers wrote recently in an interesting piece called Seven Strategies for Rebuilding the Radio Industry.

Myers is calling on the two largest consolidators, CBS and Clear Channel, to immediately announce dramatic cost reductions for 30-second commercials while maintaining prices for 60. Start with the pitch that&hellip

The 12 Sorry Days of Radio’s Christmas

On the first day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
A parking ticket in DC.

Merrrrry Christmas! It's true ABC in Washington now making its employees pay their own $125 a month parking charges.

On the second day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
Two jobs in one,
And a parking ticket in DC.

In radio during the year 2009 you'll either have two jobs or no job -- go figure the irony.

On the third day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
Three retailers selling cheap HD,
Two jobs in one,
And a parking ticket in DC.

Best Buy, Target and Wal-Mart will be&hellip

The 12 Sorry Days of Radio’s Christmas

On the first day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
A parking ticket in DC.

Merrrrry Christmas! It's true ABC in Washington now making its employees pay their own $125 a month parking charges.

On the second day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
Two jobs in one,
And a parking ticket in DC.

In radio during the year 2009 you'll either have two jobs or no job -- go figure the irony.

On the third day of Christmas,
my employer sent to me
Three retailers selling cheap HD,
Two jobs in one,
And a parking ticket in DC.

Best Buy, Target and Wal-Mart will be&hellip

Labelheimer’s Disease (Forgetting How to Make a Profit From Music)

Perhaps you saw where Atlantic Records, an appendage of Warner Music Group, was bragging just before Thanksgiving that more than half of its music sales is now from digital products such as legal downloads and ring tones for cell phones.

The same Warner Music group then turned around and posted lower revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter -- to quote The Wall Street Journal -- "as consumers continued to shift toward digital music at the expense of compact-disc sales".

Wait a minute.

Digital sales are up -- profit is down.

Are you drinking their Kool-Aid yet? I'm not.

Atlantic is counting all kinds of&hellip

Labelheimer’s Disease (Forgetting How to Make a Profit From Music)

Perhaps you saw where Atlantic Records, an appendage of Warner Music Group, was bragging just before Thanksgiving that more than half of its music sales is now from digital products such as legal downloads and ring tones for cell phones.

The same Warner Music group then turned around and posted lower revenue for its fiscal fourth quarter -- to quote The Wall Street Journal -- "as consumers continued to shift toward digital music at the expense of compact-disc sales".

Wait a minute.

Digital sales are up -- profit is down.

Are you drinking their Kool-Aid yet? I'm not.

Atlantic is counting all kinds of&hellip

At Citadel, a “Fagreed” Kind of Christmas

Paid vacation slashed by 50% at Citadel.

Ho! Ho! Ho!

Somebody who knows Citadel CEO Farid Suleman real well needs to get him aside and do an intervention -- now!

It's holiday time, for God's sake.

We're in a recession -- you think he would know that.

And he's been picking off employees for slaughter on a whim every time he gets his ass in trouble with Wall Street. After all, you have to work hard to produce a stock worth only 15 cents.

That's right, 15 -- c-e-n-t-s.

"Fagreed" has been a big failure. Forget the stock price. Look at the tons of debt his ego took on when he just had to do that&hellip

At Citadel, a “Fagreed” Kind of Christmas

Paid vacation slashed by 50% at Citadel.

Ho! Ho! Ho!

Somebody who knows Citadel CEO Farid Suleman real well needs to get him aside and do an intervention -- now!

It's holiday time, for God's sake.

We're in a recession -- you think he would know that.

And he's been picking off employees for slaughter on a whim every time he gets his ass in trouble with Wall Street. After all, you have to work hard to produce a stock worth only 15 cents.

That's right, 15 -- c-e-n-t-s.

"Fagreed" has been a big failure. Forget the stock price. Look at the tons of debt his ego took on when he just had to do that&hellip

Why Bill Drake Still Matters

I've been trying to get out of the habit of looking at my email after midnight, but I had a lapse early Sunday morning. I'm sorry I looked.

John Rook thoughtfully emailed his legion of followers that we had lost the legendary radio programmer Bill Drake (Phil Yarbrough) to lung cancer at the age of 71.

It couldn't be.

Bill Drake was in his thirties, wasn't he? Or was that just the way some of us will always think of him. I still remember my first meeting with him in Philadelphia when he drew a few hot clocks for me over lunch. He was great at hot clocks and a lot of other things that made for good&hellip

Why Bill Drake Still Matters

I've been trying to get out of the habit of looking at my email after midnight, but I had a lapse early Sunday morning. I'm sorry I looked.

John Rook thoughtfully emailed his legion of followers that we had lost the legendary radio programmer Bill Drake (Phil Yarbrough) to lung cancer at the age of 71.

It couldn't be.

Bill Drake was in his thirties, wasn't he? Or was that just the way some of us will always think of him. I still remember my first meeting with him in Philadelphia when he drew a few hot clocks for me over lunch. He was great at hot clocks and a lot of other things that made for good&hellip